Uncertainty & Risk
As we head into a new year, there are many unknowns. At times, we might wish for greater certainty and do our best to capture that. At times, this can leave us with a false sense of security that we have things all figured out. The reality is uncertainty is the nature of the life we live. The upside is this keeps things interesting and us on our toes!
This dichotomy of known and unknown comes to focus in two related terms: risk and uncertainty. Risk is a subset of uncertainty where unknowns are subject to estimation with a greater or lesser degree of confidence. This delves into the science of probability. As time passes and we gain more information, our ability to estimate the probability of an outcome increases.
Our running is full of uncertainty, especially as we age. When drafting our race calendar for the coming year, we may be full of optimism. If we didn’t have a good dose of that, it would take away much of the incentive to train. Nevertheless, only time will tell if we will be healthy come summer or fall to run credible races and whether injuries earlier in the year keep us from peak training that enables strong fall racing.
How might we delineate risk and uncertainty in our running? First, our baseline mileage for 2024 can guide how much we might run in 2025. If we were battling or recovering from injuries but are now healthy, we run the risk of going overboard in calculating how much we think we can run. The standard guideline for a year-over-year increase is 10%. However, that may be overly restrictive if substantial alternative aerobic exercise, or running equivalents (REQs) such as water running, was done to fill the gap. Yet, a plan to increase by 20%, 30% or more, significantly increases the risk of injury. Yes, it’s uncertain whether we will do ourselves in, which might lead us into thinking since we don’t know, we’ll take a gamble.
Fortunately, we have built-in feedback systems, as long as we pay attention to them. When amping up the volume and quality of our running, little tweaks may present themselves. At our peril, we might think they’ll take care of themselves and go away. This is a good time to step back and recalibrate. If we miss our mileage target for a week or two that’s a small price for getting back on track, especially if we fill in with REQs. The long view is always important to take at any age, but especially in our senior years.